Smallpox - the consequences
The majority of today's health care workers have no experience
with smallpox and hence would have extreme difficulties diagnosing
the disease. This means that more people would become infected
before a smallpox diagnosis was reported, leaving the entire
population with a higher risk of contracting the disease. Given
today's global travel activities and the virus' long incubation
period, all nations must safe-guard against this virus. A smallpox
outbreak anywhere would quickly become a global, not a local,
problem.
Smallpox is extremely contagious. The 2001 US smallpox
exercise "Dark Winter" (1) concluded that 2 months after a smallpox
outbreak the nation might have 3 million infected smallpox victims,
of which 1 million will die. These facts, combined with the low
level of immunity in today's population, leaves the population
tremendously vulnerable to smallpox from a direct or indirect
biological weapon attack, an accidental release or a natural
occurrence.
During an outbreak, total national readiness would be absolutely
necessary in order to secure continued national governance. A few
facts about this disease illustrate why it is so potentially
devastating:
- Smallpox is easily transmitted from person-to-person.
- There is no cure for the disease.
- For about 30 percent of those who become infected, the disease
is fatal.
- Today's populations have dangerously low immunity levels, which
are getting lower day by day.
(1) Bio-terrorism Exercise 2001; Johns Hopkins Center for
Civilian Biodefense, Center for Strategic and International
Studies, ANSER, & Memorial Institute for the Prevention of
Terrorism
